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Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspective...
| Müşterek Yazar: | |
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| Diğer Yazarlar: | , |
| Materyal Türü: | e-Kitap |
| Dil: | İngilizce |
| Baskı/Yayın Bilgisi: |
Cham :
Springer International Publishing :
2019.
Imprint: Springer, |
| Edisyon: | 1st ed. 2019. |
| Seri Bilgileri: | Demographic Research Monographs, A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,
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| Konular: | |
| Online Erişim: | Full-text access |
İçindekiler:
- Ch 1.Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Nico Keilman
- Ch 2. Life Expectancy is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes - A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: Edward Palmer
- Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho
- Ch 4. Mortality Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg
- Ch 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population Projection: Hans Lundström
- Ch 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel
- Ch 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models - an Epidemiologist's Perspective: Kaare Christensen
- Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson
- SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico Keilman
- Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico Keilman
- Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho
- Ch 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de Beer
- Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar
- SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson
- Ch 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel
- Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee
- Ch 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho
- Ch 16. Life Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim Oeppen
- Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present: Tommy Bengtsson
- SECTION 4. Causes of death: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen
- Ch 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin and Marco Marsili
- Ch 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden - Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns Rosén
- Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets
- SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson
- Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and George Davey Smith
- Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen
- Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele Doblhammer
- Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter. .